India's quick-service restaurant (QSR) industry is showing early signs of demand recovery, but Macquarie highlights rising costs and intensifying competition from food-delivery aggregators as reasons for its cautiousness. According to Macquarie, post-fourth-quarter trends indicate a gradual improvement in dine-in demand across restaurant chains. Within the sector, Macquarie remains most constructive on franchise operators Devyani International, Sapphire Foods and Westlife Foodworld.
However, the recovery remains uneven and is being overshadowed by inflationary pressures and the growing dominance of delivery platforms such as Zomato and Swiggy.
The brokerage said same-store sales growth across the listed QSR universe is tracking broadly in line with or slightly ahead of fourth-quarter levels. However, restaurant brands continue to trail delivery aggregators in growth, highlighting a structural shift in consumer behaviour.
To counter this trend, restaurant operators have increasingly turned to targeted discounting and value offerings aimed at attracting customers back into dine-in formats. While these initiatives could help improve footfalls, Macquarie believes they may also weigh on profitability if sustained for longer periods.
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Devyani, Sapphire and Westlife Preferred
Macquarie remains most constructive on franchise operators Devyani International, Sapphire Foods and Westlife Foodworld. The brokerage cited their exposure to the KFC and McDonald's formats, strong operating leverage and potential earnings upside from an eventual recovery in discretionary spending.
Devyani, in particular, could benefit from a turnaround in the Pizza Hut business following the merger of Yum franchise operations, Macquarie said.
By contrast, the brokerage remains cautious on Jubilant FoodWorks. It believes pressure on like-for-like sales growth could persist for several quarters due to a high base and the need for continued investments in dine-in recovery, risks that it believes are not fully reflected in current valuations.
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Inflation Remains a Key Concern
The brokerage highlighted that rising raw material costs and broader inflationary pressures continue to weigh on consumer sentiment and discretionary spending. As a result, Macquarie expects the recovery in same-store sales growth to be more gradual than previously anticipated.
This cautious view has prompted the brokerage to cut earnings estimates across its restaurant coverage universe. Forward EPS estimates for FY28 and FY29 have been reduced by 3-7%, while target prices have also been trimmed. The brokerage said earnings downgrades were amplified because lower profit bases lead to a greater flow-through impact on bottom-line estimates.
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